Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 44.35%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 30.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.03%) and 2-0 (7.14%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-2 draw for this match.
