With just two points separating Rio Ave and Chaves in the league standings, we expect a thrilling contest on Sunday. The Vilacondenses have been solid on home turf this season and we fancy them claiming all three points this weekend. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rio Ave win with a probability of 40.63%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 30.73% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Rio Ave win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.08%) and 2-0 (7.91%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (10.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Rio Ave in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Rio Ave.

Result
Rio Ave	Draw	Chaves
40.63% ( -0.17)	28.64% ( 0.07)	30.73% ( 0.1)

Both teams to score 45.05% (

-0.16)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.78% (

-0.22)

61.22% (

0.22)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.84% (

-0.16)

81.15% (

0.16)

Rio Ave Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.44% (

-0.2)

29.56% (

0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.42% (

-0.25)

65.58% (

0.25)

Chaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.96% (

-0.04)

36.04% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

27.18% (

-0.04)

72.82% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Rio Ave 40.62%

Chaves 30.73%

Draw 28.64%

Rio Ave	Draw	Chaves
1-0 @ 12.98% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.08% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.28% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.22% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 1% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.5% Total : 40.62%	1-1 @ 13.25% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 10.65% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.62% Total : 28.64%	0-1 @ 10.87% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 6.76% ( 0) 0-2 @ 5.55% ( 0.03) 1-3 @ 2.3% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.97% Total : 30.73%