SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 44.62%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Chaves |
44.62% ( 0.09) | 27.32% ( -0.04) | 28.06% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 47.42% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.38% ( 0.14) | 57.62% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.61% ( 0.11) | 78.39% ( -0.12) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.29% ( 0.11) | 25.7% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.37% ( 0.15) | 60.62% ( -0.15) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.82% ( 0.04) | 36.17% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.04% ( 0.04) | 72.96% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Chaves |
| 1-0 @ 12.63% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 3.95% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.01% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.34% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.18% Total : 44.62% | 1-1 @ 12.84% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 9.3% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.32% | 0-1 @ 9.46% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 6.53% 0-2 @ 4.81% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.21% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.63% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.92% Total : 28.06% |
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