It would not be too much of a surprise if Chaves record a fourth consecutive 1-1 draw in this one given how close the sides are in the table and in similar ropey form.
Guimaraes have won the last three head-to-heads though, and will hope that can give them the edge.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 44.62%. A win for Chaves had a probability of 28.06% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Chaves win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vitoria de Guimaraes would win this match.
0.09) 
-0.04) 
