SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 62.85%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 15.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.63%) and 1-2 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
15.75% ( 0.7) | 21.4% ( 0.62) | 62.85% ( -1.32) |
| Both teams to score 48.68% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.35% ( -1.29) | 47.65% ( 1.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.15% ( -1.2) | 69.85% ( 1.2) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.97% ( 0.16) | 43.03% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.68% ( 0.14) | 79.32% ( -0.14) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.45% ( -0.82) | 14.55% ( 0.82) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.4% ( -1.6) | 42.6% ( 1.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.3) 2-1 @ 4.29% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.16% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.58% Total : 15.75% | 1-1 @ 10.17% ( 0.28) 0-0 @ 6.26% ( 0.33)2-2 @ 4.14% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.83% Total : 21.4% | 0-1 @ 12.07% ( 0.3) 0-2 @ 11.63% ( -0.06)1-2 @ 9.81% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 7.47% ( -0.26)1-3 @ 6.3% ( -0.19)0-4 @ 3.6% ( -0.24)1-4 @ 3.04% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.07)0-5 @ 1.39% ( -0.14)2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.07)1-5 @ 1.17% ( -0.11)Other @ 2.43% Total : 62.84% |
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