Sporting Lisbon have put together a fine run of form away from home, claiming four wins and one draw in their last six matches. Given the gulf in quality and experience between the two sides, we are backing the Leoes to claim all three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 62.85%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Chaves had a probability of 15.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.63%) and 1-2 (9.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.17%), while for a Chaves win it was 1-0 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
0.7) 
-1.32) 
