Despite the difference in league positions, these two teams head into this contest in similar form. With that in mind, and with Vizela possessing home advantage, we are backing a low-scoring draw, one which will benefit the hosts rather than the visitors.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 46.14%. A win for Vizela had a probability of 27.15% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (8.76%). The likeliest Vizela win was 1-0 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood.
