Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 49.47%. A win for Rostov had a probability of 26.58% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Rostov win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.
