Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 61.34%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Rotor Volgograd had a probability of 14.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.73%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.78%), while for a Rotor Volgograd win it was 0-1 (6.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.