Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lokomotiv Moscow win with a probability of 41.12%. A win for Sochi had a probability of 32.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lokomotiv Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Sochi win was 0-1 (8.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lokomotiv Moscow would win this match.