Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 49.89%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 24.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.51%) and 1-2 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 1-0 (8.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
