Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 38.25%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 36.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.04%) and 0-2 (5.89%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 2-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.
