Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 66.05%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Rotor Volgograd had a probability of 13.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.77%) and 2-1 (9.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.74%), while for a Rotor Volgograd win it was 0-1 (4.95%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sochi would win this match.
