Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 56.65%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 21.74% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.6%) and 2-0 (8.53%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 1-2 (5.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.