Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 65.08%. A draw had a probability of 19% and a win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 15.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.57%) and 1-0 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.7%), while for a Lokomotiv Moscow win it was 1-2 (4.46%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.
