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Scottish Cup | Fourth Round
Apr 17, 2021 at 11.45am UK
BBSP Stadium Rugby Park
M

Kilmarnock
3 - 1
Montrose

Lafferty (6'), Pinnock (24'), Kiltie (61')
Broadfoot (63')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Ballantyne (82')
Ballantyne (67'), Masson (75'), Quinn (86'), Campbell (90'), Ballantyne (90+2'), Callaghan (90+3')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kilmarnock win with a probability of 53.5%. A win for Montrose had a probability of 24.21% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kilmarnock win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.38%) and 2-0 (7.99%). The likeliest Montrose win was 1-2 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.19%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kilmarnock would win this match.

Result
KilmarnockDrawMontrose
53.5%22.29%24.21%
Both teams to score 59.96%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.45%39.55%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.1%61.9%
Kilmarnock Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.17%14.83%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.86%43.14%
Montrose Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.41%29.59%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.38%65.62%
Score Analysis
    Kilmarnock 53.5%
    Montrose 24.21%
    Draw 22.28%
KilmarnockDrawMontrose
2-1 @ 9.73%
1-0 @ 8.38%
2-0 @ 7.99%
3-1 @ 6.19%
3-0 @ 5.08%
3-2 @ 3.77%
4-1 @ 2.95%
4-0 @ 2.43%
4-2 @ 1.8%
5-1 @ 1.13%
5-0 @ 0.93%
Other @ 3.12%
Total : 53.5%
1-1 @ 10.19%
2-2 @ 5.93%
0-0 @ 4.39%
3-3 @ 1.53%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 22.28%
1-2 @ 6.21%
0-1 @ 5.34%
0-2 @ 3.25%
1-3 @ 2.52%
2-3 @ 2.41%
0-3 @ 1.32%
Other @ 3.16%
Total : 24.21%

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