Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greenock Morton win with a probability of 45.01%. A win for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic had a probability of 29.24% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greenock Morton win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win was 0-1 (8.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Greenock Morton would win this match.
0.04) 
-0.02) 
