Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arbroath win with a probability of 56.2%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Greenock Morton had a probability of 19.44%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arbroath win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.04%) and 2-1 (9.54%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Greenock Morton win it was 0-1 (6.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arbroath would win this match.
