SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 61.7%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Hellas Verona had a probability of 16.28%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.67%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.46%), while for a Hellas Verona win it was 0-1 (5.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Hellas Verona |
61.7% ( 0.68) | 22.02% ( 0.06) | 16.28% ( -0.75) |
| Both teams to score 47.91% ( -1.73) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.72% ( -1.51) | 49.28% ( 1.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.66% ( -1.38) | 71.34% ( 1.37) |
| Atalanta BC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.54% ( -0.29) | 15.46% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 55.67% ( -0.54) | 44.33% ( 0.53) |
| Hellas Verona Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.67% ( -1.85) | 43.33% ( 1.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 20.44% ( -1.59) | 79.56% ( 1.58) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Hellas Verona |
| 1-0 @ 12.5% ( 0.64) 2-0 @ 11.67% ( 0.49)2-1 @ 9.76% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 7.26% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 6.08% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 3.39% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 2.84% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 2.54% ( -0.18)5-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.1)5-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.14% Total : 61.69% | 1-1 @ 10.46% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.7% ( 0.4)2-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.25)Other @ 0.78% Total : 22.02% | 0-1 @ 5.6% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.22)0-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 1.22% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.13)Other @ 1.6% Total : 16.28% |
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