Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 50.8%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Ascoli had a probability of 23.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.74%) and 1-2 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.14%), while for an Ascoli win it was 1-0 (7.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.