Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cagliari win with a probability of 37.23%. A win for Modena had a probability of 35.64% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cagliari win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.61%). The likeliest Modena win was 0-1 (10.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Cagliari in this match.
0.28) 
-0.35) 
