Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 38.08%. A win for Modena had a probability of 37.57% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.55%) and 0-2 (5.66%). The likeliest Modena win was 2-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.24%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Frosinone would win this match.
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