Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cittadella win with a probability of 38.64%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 35% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cittadella win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Crotone win was 0-1 (9.35%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood.