Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 57.85%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Alessandria had a probability of 18.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.86%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.05%), while for an Alessandria win it was 0-1 (6.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
