Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 38.13%. A win for Lecce had a probability of 38.06% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.94%) and 2-0 (5.4%). The likeliest Lecce win was 1-2 (8.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SPAL would win this match.