Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maribor win with a probability of 54.79%. A win for Aluminij had a probability of 23.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maribor win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Aluminij win was 1-2 (6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maribor would win this match.
-0.11) 
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