Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 39.51%. A win for Servette had a probability of 37.83% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.76%) and 2-0 (4.95%). The likeliest Servette win was 1-2 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.67%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.