Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 42.26%. A win for Luzern had a probability of 34.34% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.99%) and 2-0 (5.88%). The likeliest Luzern win was 1-2 (7.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.47%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
