Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 39.81%. A win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.07%) and 0-2 (6.1%). The likeliest FC Winterthur win was 2-1 (8.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
-0.23) 
0.3) 
