Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 61.36%. A win for Luzern had a probability of 19.47% and a draw had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.57%) and 3-1 (7.33%). The likeliest Luzern win was 1-2 (5.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Basel would win this match.
