SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC Zurich | 35 | 33 | 76 |
| 2 | Basel | 35 | 28 | 59 |
| 3 | Young Boys | 35 | 27 | 57 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Young Boys | 35 | 27 | 57 |
| 4 | Lugano | 36 | -1 | 57 |
| 5 | St Gallen | 35 | 1 | 47 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Basel win with a probability of 61.59%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Lugano had a probability of 18.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Basel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.15%) and 3-1 (7.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.54%), while for a Lugano win it was 1-2 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Basel in this match.
| Result | ||
| Basel | Draw | Lugano |
61.59% ( -2.69) | 19.48% ( 1.06) | 18.94% ( 1.63) |
| Both teams to score 62.18% ( -0.72) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.89% ( -2.34) | 33.12% ( 2.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.14% ( -2.74) | 54.86% ( 2.75) |
| Basel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.57% ( -1.31) | 10.43% ( 1.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 65.98% ( -3.04) | 34.02% ( 3.05) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.42% ( 0.21) | 30.58% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.19% ( 0.25) | 66.81% ( -0.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Basel | Draw | Lugano |
| 2-1 @ 9.66% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 8.15% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 7.27% ( -0.3)1-0 @ 7.21% ( 0.49)3-0 @ 6.14% ( -0.29)3-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.15)4-1 @ 4.11% ( -0.42)4-0 @ 3.47% ( -0.38)4-2 @ 2.44% ( -0.23)5-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.31)5-0 @ 1.57% ( -0.27)5-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.18)4-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.35% Total : 61.59% | 1-1 @ 8.54% ( 0.62) 2-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.13)0-0 @ 3.19% ( 0.38)3-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.32% Total : 19.48% | 1-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.4) 0-1 @ 3.78% ( 0.47)2-3 @ 2.26% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.29)1-3 @ 2% ( 0.17)Other @ 3.6% Total : 18.94% |
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