Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 52.59%. A draw had a probability of 26.2% and a win for Penafiel had a probability of 21.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.76%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%), while for a Penafiel win it was 0-1 (8.11%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.