Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 44.28%. A win for Penafiel had a probability of 28.76% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.8%) and 0-2 (8.33%). The likeliest Penafiel win was 1-0 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%).