Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia Under-21s win with a probability of 71.4%. A draw had a probability of 17.9% and a win for Latvia Under-21s had a probability of 10.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia Under-21s win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.91%) and 0-3 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.52%), while for a Latvia Under-21s win it was 1-0 (3.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Russia Under-21s would win this match.