Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vorskla Poltava win with a probability of 46.22%. A win for Metalist Kharkiv had a probability of 28.1% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vorskla Poltava win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 2-0 (8.25%). The likeliest Metalist Kharkiv win was 0-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Vorskla Poltava would win this match.
