SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 39.16%. A win for Progreso had a probability of 32.97% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.15%) and 0-2 (7.3%). The likeliest Progreso win was 1-0 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | River Plate |
32.97% ( 0.09) | 27.86% ( 0.08) | 39.16% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 47.87% ( -0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.99% ( -0.27) | 58.01% ( 0.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.3% ( -0.22) | 78.69% ( 0.22) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.27% ( -0.08) | 32.73% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 30.71% ( -0.09) | 69.29% ( 0.09) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.16% ( -0.23) | 28.83% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 35.31% ( -0.29) | 64.69% ( 0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 10.54% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 7.32% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.89% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 2.73% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.62% Total : 32.97% | 1-1 @ 13.1% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.77% Total : 27.86% | 0-1 @ 11.73% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 8.15% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.38% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 3.03% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.69% Total : 39.15% |
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