SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 45.61%. A win for River Plate had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest River Plate win was 0-1 (8.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Progreso in this match.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | River Plate |
45.61% ( 0.77) | 25.89% ( -0.09) | 28.5% ( -0.69) |
| Both teams to score 51.9% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.04% ( 0.01) | 51.96% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.3% ( 0.01) | 73.7% ( -0.01) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.26% ( 0.37) | 22.74% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.58% ( 0.54) | 56.41% ( -0.55) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.18% ( -0.51) | 32.81% ( 0.5) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.61% ( -0.57) | 69.38% ( 0.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 11.05% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 9.12% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 8.19% ( 0.17)3-1 @ 4.5% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 4.04% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.67% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.1% Total : 45.6% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.46% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.89% | 0-1 @ 8.31% ( -0.12) 1-2 @ 6.86% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 4.63% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.54% Total : 28.5% |
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