SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 40.95%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 34.21% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.56%) and 0-2 (6.47%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.64%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Bala Town |
34.21% ( -0.01) | 24.84% ( -0.02) | 40.95% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 57.92% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.72% ( 0.07) | 45.28% ( -0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.38% ( 0.06) | 67.62% ( -0.07) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.34% ( 0.02) | 25.66% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 39.43% ( 0.03) | 60.57% ( -0.03) |
| Bala Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.92% ( 0.04) | 22.08% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.57% ( 0.06) | 55.43% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Caernarfon Town | Draw | Bala Town |
| 2-1 @ 7.92% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.71% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.59% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.71% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.38% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.22% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 2.53% Total : 34.21% | 1-1 @ 11.64% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.98% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 5.67% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.37% ( 0)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.84% | 1-2 @ 8.79% ( 0) 0-1 @ 8.56% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 6.47% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.43% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 3.26% ( 0)2-3 @ 3.01% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.67% ( 0)0-4 @ 1.23% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.14% ( 0)Other @ 2.4% Total : 40.95% |
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