Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 45.39%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 28.61% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 0-1 (8.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood.