Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Finland win with a probability of 37.41%. A win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 37.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Finland win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (6.01%). The likeliest Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 1-0 (8.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Finland would win this match.