Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cape Verde win with a probability of 47.63%. A win for Nigeria had a probability of 27.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cape Verde win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.37%). The likeliest Nigeria win was 0-1 (7.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
