Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Congo had a probability of 30.26% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.54%) and 0-2 (7.97%). The likeliest Congo win was 1-0 (9.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Senegal would win this match.