Both nations will fancy their chances of success on Thursday, though Fiji will have the psychological edge against Papua New Guinea considering they are unbeaten in each of the last five meetings.
Although there is little to separate these two nations, we feel that Fiji will edge out their opponents to claim a slender victory in Qatar.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fiji win with a probability of 48.48%. A win for Papua New Guinea had a probability of 26.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fiji win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.38%) and 2-0 (8.7%). The likeliest Papua New Guinea win was 0-1 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.
