Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 55.8%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Iraq had a probability of 20.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a Iraq win it was 0-1 (6.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Iran in this match.