Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madagascar win with a probability of 37.9%. A win for Congo DR had a probability of 32.1% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.51%) and 2-1 (7.41%). The likeliest Congo DR win was 0-1 (12.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Madagascar in this match.