Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Poland win with a probability of 47.35%. A win for Albania had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Poland win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Albania win was 0-1 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Poland would win this match.