Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 53.54%. A draw had a probability of 24.9% and a win for Republic of Ireland had a probability of 21.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.28%) and 2-1 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.78%), while for a Republic of Ireland win it was 0-1 (7.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Serbia would win this match.
