Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 41.79%. A win for Slovakia had a probability of 31.55% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.68%) and 0-2 (7.52%). The likeliest Slovakia win was 1-0 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
