Tonga
2 - 1
Samoa

Sonasi (45+1')
Paea He Lotu Feke (43'), Lea'aetoa (120+2')

FT
(aet)

Lui Matai Salisbury (86'), Faamatau (105+3')
Junior Isaiah Malauulu (57'), Tuitele (94'), Maiava (120+7')

Data Analysis

Lineups

Coverage of the World Cup Qualifying - Oceania Second Qualifying Round clash between Tonga and Samoa.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tonga

Last Game: Cook Islands 1-3 Tonga
Thursday, September 5 at 11pm in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Samoa

Last Game: American Samoa 2-0 Samoa
Friday, September 6 at 3am in World Cup Qualifying - Oceania

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Samoa win with a probability of 69.05%. A draw had a probability of 17% and a win for Tonga had a probability of 13.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Samoa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.91%) and 1-3 (7.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.49%), while for a Tonga win it was 2-1 (3.95%).

Result
Tonga	Draw	Samoa
13.95%	17%	69.05%

Both teams to score 59.88%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

69.12%

30.88%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

47.76%

52.24%

Tonga Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.17%

34.83%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.44%

71.56%

Samoa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

91.88%

8.12%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

71.5%

28.49%

Score Analysis

Tonga 13.95%

Samoa 69.05%

Draw 17%

Tonga	Draw	Samoa
2-1 @ 3.95% 1-0 @ 2.98% 3-2 @ 1.74% 2-0 @ 1.57% 3-1 @ 1.39% Other @ 2.32% Total : 13.95%	1-1 @ 7.49% 2-2 @ 4.96% 0-0 @ 2.83% 3-3 @ 1.46% Other @ 0.27% Total : 17%	1-2 @ 9.4% 0-2 @ 8.91% 1-3 @ 7.87% 0-3 @ 7.46% 0-1 @ 7.1% 1-4 @ 4.94% 0-4 @ 4.69% 2-3 @ 4.15% 2-4 @ 2.61% 1-5 @ 2.48% 0-5 @ 2.35% 2-5 @ 1.31% 1-6 @ 1.04% 0-6 @ 0.99% 3-4 @ 0.92% Other @ 2.83% Total : 69.05%