This has all the makings of being a tight contest where Watford are able to frustrate their opponents, much like they did at Ipswich. Nevertheless, we feel Southampton will eventually make the breakthrough and fend off the Hornets' response in a hard-earned victory.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 63.25%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Watford had a probability of 16.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 1-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for a Watford win it was 1-2 (4.67%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
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