A closely-fought contest could be on the cards this weekend considering Watford's woeful away form and Sunderland's poor form on home soil, but the Black Cats will be regarded as favourites on Wednesday and they should have enough quality in the final third to outscore the Hornets.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 51.02%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Watford had a probability of 24.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.68%), while for a Watford win it was 0-1 (7.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sunderland would win this match.
-0.81) 
0.24) 
