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EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 27, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
Ewood Park (Blackburn, Lancashire)
CC

Blackburn
5 - 2
Cardiff

Garrett (13'), Sigurdsson (36'), Moran (49', 54'), Markanday (69')
FT(HT: 2-2)
Robinson (18'), Etete (45+3')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Ipswich 4-3 Blackburn
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Sunderland 0-1 Cardiff
Sunday, September 24 at 3pm in Championship

We said: Blackburn Rovers 1-2 Cardiff City

With changes aplenty expected, it is impossible to predict the outcome of this contest with any great certainty. Nevertheless, we can only go with the Bluebirds who, despite only returning to South Wales late on Sunday night, are playing with an added belief under Bulut. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Blackburn Rovers win with a probability of 49.06%. A win for Cardiff City had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Blackburn Rovers win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Cardiff City win was 0-1 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Blackburn Rovers would win this match.

Result
Blackburn RoversDrawCardiff City
49.06% (-0.174 -0.17) 24.41% (0.030999999999999 0.03) 26.52% (0.138 0.14)
Both teams to score 55.12% (0.022999999999996 0.02)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.96% (-0.025999999999996 -0.03)47.04% (0.021999999999998 0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.71% (-0.026 -0.03)69.28% (0.021000000000001 0.02)
Blackburn Rovers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.77% (-0.082000000000008 -0.08)19.23% (0.077000000000002 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.07% (-0.133 -0.13)50.93% (0.128 0.13)
Cardiff City Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.24% (0.093999999999994 0.09)31.75% (-0.099 -0.1)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.82% (0.11 0.11)68.18% (-0.11500000000001 -0.12)
Score Analysis
    Blackburn Rovers 49.06%
    Cardiff City 26.52%
    Draw 24.4%
Blackburn RoversDrawCardiff City
1-0 @ 10.06% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-1 @ 9.52% (-0.011999999999999 -0.01)
2-0 @ 8.3% (-0.033000000000001 -0.03)
3-1 @ 5.23% (-0.019 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.56% (-0.029 -0.03)
3-2 @ 3% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
4-1 @ 2.16% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.88% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-2 @ 1.24% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
Other @ 3.11%
Total : 49.06%
1-1 @ 11.54% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 6.11% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
2-2 @ 5.46% (0.008 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.15% (0.002 0)
Other @ 0.15%
Total : 24.4%
0-1 @ 7% (0.025 0.03)
1-2 @ 6.62% (0.026 0.03)
0-2 @ 4.02% (0.025 0.03)
1-3 @ 2.53% (0.017 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.09% (0.008 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.54% (0.014 0.01)
Other @ 2.72%
Total : 26.52%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Ipswich 4-3 Blackburn
Saturday, September 23 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Blackburn 1-3 Sunderland
Wednesday, September 20 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Blackburn 2-1 Middlesbrough
Saturday, September 16 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Plymouth 3-0 Blackburn
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Harrogate 0-8 Blackburn
Wednesday, August 30 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Watford 0-1 Blackburn
Sunday, August 27 at 12pm in Championship
Last Game: Sunderland 0-1 Cardiff
Sunday, September 24 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Cardiff 3-2 Coventry
Tuesday, September 19 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Cardiff 2-0 Swansea
Saturday, September 16 at 7.45pm in Championship
Last Game: Ipswich 3-2 Cardiff
Saturday, September 2 at 3pm in Championship
Last Game: Birmingham 1-3 Cardiff
Tuesday, August 29 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Cardiff 2-1 Sheff Weds
Saturday, August 26 at 3pm in Championship


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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